Compare tournament forecasts and see how each team’s chances change as games are played.
Tournament explorer
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2020 tournament
A March without a bracket.
The NCAA cancelled the 2020 men’s and women’s basketball tournaments because of COVID-19. There was no official field, no games, and no champion.
Choose another year to explore a tournament. A missing season is part of the history—not a gap to fill with predictions.
See the NCAA’s championship historyReading the evidence
Forecast percentages are a team’s chance of reaching each stage from the selected snapshot. They are not its chance of winning only the next game. A checkmark means the stage was already reached; a dash means zero chance.
Forecast and result coverage varies by year. The selected year’s sources appear below.
Data credits & licenses identifies the original sources, this app’s transformations, and the terms that apply to each source.
This independent educational recreation takes its interaction pattern from FiveThirtyEight’s 2015 tournament explorer.
Sources, coverage & downloads
How well does the ensemble predict?
How this was built
The request: recreate the archived tournament dashboard, with a selector for every year from 2016 onward.
The implementation uses native HTML for an accessible bracket and table, Apache ECharts for team forecast history, and locally bundled data and fonts. Complete opening fields from each available source are fitted to a bracket model, then updated using completed results. An equal-source average and a prior-season logistic blend are available where the data support them. FiveThirtyEight’s source selection uses its published historical snapshots; other sources and both blends use reconstructed updates.